The largest playoff field in National Women’s Soccer League history is about to kick off, and all four quarterfinals feature clear favorites.
For better or worse, the playoffs have expanded from six to eight teams, meaning the top two seeds no longer get a bye to the semifinals, as they did in recent years. It also means there are three sub-.500 teams in the postseason, which is not ideal.
The gap from fourth to fifth was 16 points, showing just how superior the top four teams — Orlando Pride, Washington Spirit, NJ/NY Gotham FC, and Kansas City Current — were this season.
Regular-season records are just history now, however. All eight teams need to win three games to lift the NWSL Championship trophy. Why will each win? And what could be each team’s undoing?
Seed: No. 1
Next game: vs. No. 8 Chicago Red Stars, Friday 8 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Why they will win: Orlando was the best team throughout the regular season thanks to every player performing at or near peak career levels, and that doesn’t change overnight. Don’t be fooled by a pair of losses in the aftermath of winning the Shield, resting some players, and escaping a hurricane. This is also the best defense in the league, and that will pay dividends
Why they won’t: Barbra Banda has gone cold. Orlando is much more than a one-player show, but if the Pride are going to put a cap on an historic Shield with an NWSL Championship, they need their record-signing striker leading the goal-scoring effort. Banda is sensational, but defenses have adapted, and she has scored only one goal in 10 games since the Olympics.
Seed: No. 2
Next game: vs. No. 7 Bay FC, Sunday, 12.30 p.m. ET, ABC
Why they will win: Washington is arguably the best team in transition, with a squad that can apply relentless pressure and pounce when given the smallest window of opportunity. The Spirit did that in Saturday’s regular-season finale to claim the No. 2 seed. Ashley Hatch has found her form in the striker role, and Trinity Rodman is a game-changer from wide areas. The Spirit don’t need to control too much of a game to win.
Why they won’t: It’s been a long season for every team, but the Spirit have been particularly beaten up down the stretch, at one point recently missing half a starting lineup to injuries (and then losing Andi Sullivan to a torn ACL last month). Several players, including Rodman, are back on the field, but will the Spirit have the comparative legs to string together the results, especially if extra time is required? The question could be asked of any playoff squad, but the Spirit’s injury report has been longer than most lately.
Seed: No. 3
Next game: vs. No. 6 Portland Thorns, Sunday 3 p.m. ET, ABC
Why they will win: A strong identity. The defending champions have leaned into their depth and can maintain a consistent game plan no matter which players are on the field. That sense of identity paid off in last year’s playoffs, as Gotham put in strong defensive performances away from home, and this team is even more comfortable playing in its “organized chaos” this season. Big names like Esther González keep delivering, but so do less-heralded players like Ella Stevens and Delanie Sheehan. Good teams win, and this is as good a team top to bottom as any. Gotham enters the playoffs in great form having found winning form (four straight regular-season games) and, finally, its collective scoring boots.
Why they won’t: While Washington has battled injuries, Gotham has played and traveled more than any team this season. Sunday’s quarterfinal will be the team’s 40th match of the campaign, including a preseason tournament in Colombia, and they’ve had some wild cross-country treks lately that they fit in around midweek travel to Jamaica for the new Concacaf W Champions Cup, plus a trip to the White House.
Seed: No. 4
Next game: vs. No. 5 North Carolina Courage, Saturday, noon ET, CBS/Paramount+
Why they will win: They are in top form and their defense, which was their Achilles heel, has improved significantly since the start of the season. Kansas City’s midfield might be the best in the league, and the team scored a record 57 goals this season. Have you heard of Temwa Chawinga? She will, without a shred of doubt, win the MVP award, and she has scored in eight of the nine league games she played in since the Olympics, missing the season finale due to injury.
Why they won’t: The bracket. They’ve only narrowly defeated North Carolina, their quarterfinal opponent, and then a semifinal with Orlando looms if they advance. This year, Kansas City lost at home to Orlando despite being up a player and a goal, then played a scoreless chess match in Orlando in September. The Pride appear to have Kansas City’s number. This team also struggled mightily on defensive set pieces early in the season, and while that has improved, the playoffs will demand excellence in this department.
Seed: No. 5
Next game: at No. 4 Kansas City Current, Saturday, noon ET, CBS/Paramount+
Why they will win: North Carolina is the best possession-based team in the NWSL, which allows the Courage to dictate games. It starts in the back, with a defensive unit that sets play, and carries into the midfield, where Denise O’Sullivan and Narumi Miura patrol behind Ashley Sanchez. The Courage will see plenty of the ball, and that could give them confidence. Will there be a final product in front of goal? The health of last year’s MVP, Kerolin, is the X-factor in all this.
Why they won’t: Road woes. North Carolina’s road record this year is horrendous: 10 losses in 13 road games. This is a vastly different team on the road than it is at home, and CPKC Stadium is probably the hardest place to play in the league with a loud sellout crowd right on top of the field. North Carolina’s road to a title would almost certainly have to take place entirely away from home.
Seed: No. 6
Next game: at No. 3 NJ/NY Gotham, Sunday 3 p.m. ET, ABC
Why they will win: “Sophia Smith” is really the short answer to this question, assuming she is ready to play 90 minutes. The Thorns struggled mightily through long stretches of this season, but talent has never been a problem. Their front six can stack up with almost anyone in the league, and Smith can singlehandedly change games. Sam Coffey is a midfield general, Morgan Weaver is back on the field, and Christine Sinclair is playing with the fire of a legend
Why they won’t: Will Jekyll or Hyde show up? No team’s performances have been more erratic for long stretches of the season than Portland’s. The Thorns were winless in their first four games before a coaching change, then won six straight. They went seven games without a win coming out of the Olympic break before finally getting on track recently. They have failed to consistently put together cohesive performances and have too often lacked a creative identity. If any of those attributes creep back in, Gotham will pounce in the quarterfinal.
Seed: No. 7
Next game: at No. 2 Washington Spirit, Sunday, 12.30 p.m. ET, ABC
Why they will win: Forgive the cliché of momentum, but this is a team that figured out its identity at just the right time. A midsummer makeover to focus on defending, supported by the arrival of center-back Abby Dahlkemper, righted the ship for Bay. This team finally has the defensive backing to support a strong attacking cast. This might be the lower seed that nobody wants to play. It isn’t unthinkable for Bay to steal an ugly result in Washington, D.C.
Why they won’t: There are still flaws in this squad, and although there are several veterans, this expansion team still has a learning curve to adapt to the NWSL. A recent 5-1 shellacking at the hands of Gotham was a reminder of not only the gap between the squads but also how quickly things can unravel if a team allows them to. As much as this could be a dark horse for the playoffs, reality is still that they need to play a near-perfect game to beat a Spirit team that jointly set a new NWSL record for wins this season (18).
Seed: No. 8
Next game: at No. 1 Orlando Pride, Friday 8 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Why they will win: The task against Orlando is monumental, but the Red Stars have pulled off surprises before — including a shocking 2021 semifinal victory in Portland. If the Red Stars are going to win — in what would be possibly the biggest playoff upset in league history — they will need moments of brilliance from Mallory Swanson. Ludmila’s absence due to suspension puts that much more pressure on Swanson up top. The Red Stars also have goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher, who has answered the call for heroics before.
Why they won’t: The Red Stars haven’t been very good lately. Whereas early in the year they found success with more grit and less possession, lately that approach has resulted in less-organized performances: Their only points from their past five games came from a win over last-place Houston. ‘Tis the season for resilient defensive performances by teams that grind out results, but that description was more fitting of Chicago in the first half of the season than the Red Stars of late, who have looked more like a team that opponents have figured out.
