For the first time in the illustrious history of the NCAA basketball tournaments, two schools are sending both their men’s and women’s teams to the Final Four in the same year — but each team enters the fray with vastly different skill levels, betting expectations and public support.
NC State sends both its men’s and women’s teams to the national semifinals for the first time, becoming the 11th different school in history to do so and the first since South Carolina in 2017. The Wolfpack are also just the second school to send both teams as No. 3 seeds or lower, joining Syracuse in 2016.
If a bettor had parlayed the NC State men’s (40-1) and women’s (+320) odds of making the Final Four, they would have been rewarded with a payout of over 171-1.
The NC State men’s team has been the underdog story of March Madness. After defeating in-state rival UNC in the ACC tournament Final to cap a highly improbable run to the conference title (100-1), the Wolfpack began its captivating campaign in the Big Dance, finishing it off with a win over its other in-state rival, Duke, to gain entry to the Final Four.
Caesars college basketball trader Grant Tucker tells ESPN that when the book first put up the lines for Saturday’s Final Four game against Purdue, the sportsbook took a “close to six-digit” wager on the NC State moneyline. Across the legal sports betting landscape, the Wolfpack are receiving considerable action for the contest on both the spread and moneyline (+9.5 and +350 at ESPN BET, respectively).
It’s creating considerable liability for the books — but where they’ll really be in danger is if NC State makes it all the way to the championship game: Caesars, DraftKings and BetMGM all characterize NC State as their biggest future hazard. The Wolfpack entered the tournament at 150-1 odds to win it all and have slowly but surely climbed their way down to 15-1, attracting bets all along the way.
“NC State’s definitely our largest liability as far as futures go for this tournament, so we’re definitely trying to dodge them,” says Tucker. “The betting public just loves to have a Cinderella ticket in their pocket, so they’ve been betting them to win the whole thing at really any price that we go to just to jump on the bandwagon.”
One factor fueling the fanaticism is legal betting recently going online in North Carolina. BetMGM says that NC State, UNC and Duke combined for 47.7% of all tickets and 47.2% of all handle for futures in the state, while DraftKings says the schools account for 60% of bets and 59% of handle; within that figure, NC State accounts for 12% of each.
“It’s been a perfect storm so far regarding the NC State love. North Carolina’s recent legalization of sports betting has definitely played a big role,” says Fanatics Sportsbook college basketball trader Shank Subramani. “We’ve had pretty big Wolfpack liability in every tournament game so far along with their futures, and I expect that to continue going forward.”
But for as much love as the NC State men’s team is attracting, the women’s team is garnering significantly less. DraftKings director of race and sportsbook operations Johnny Avello says that while the book lost on the Wolfpack’s upset win over Texas in the Elite Eight, the public has largely been apathetic to this squad.
“There’s eight teams left counting the men and women, and this is the least-talked-about team,” Avello says.
That trend continues into the Final Four, where Avello says there has not been a lot of action around their game with undefeated South Carolina — which makes sense given the Gamecocks are 11.5-point favorites.
The UConn effect
In stark contrast to NC State, the UConn men’s and women’s programs have made the Final Four in the same year for the fifth time. Also unlike the Wolfpack, the Huskies enter the national semifinals with legitimate chances to win it all on both sides, if the odds are to be believed.
At -200 on ESPN BET, the UConn men are the second-biggest title favorite entering the Final Four in the last 20 years, trailing only 2021’s Gonzaga (-220). Four of those past six favorites have gone on to win the title, including Connecticut last year (-125).
The team’s dominance shined through when it went on a ridiculous 30-0 run in the second half to win and cover in its Elite Eight game against Illinois. That, in conjunction with prior dominance in the tournament, has inflated the Huskies to 11.5-point favorites against Alabama, per ESPN BET.
“As soon as we put lines up, we had a couple of sharper customers lay 10.5 and 11 with UConn,” says Tucker. “No one wants to step in front of this UConn team and I can’t blame them.”
The case against UConn is a bit more compelling on the women’s side. While Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards have been carrying the Huskies throughout this run, Geno Auriemma may have accomplished “one of his better coaching jobs this year,” per Avello, due to the huge amount of injuries Connecticut endured. They will all be put to the test against the phenomenon that is Caitlin Clark and Iowa.
The Hawkeyes return to the Final Four fresh off a vindicating win over LSU that saw the public heavily behind them and that ultimately set a record for the most-bet women’s basketball game of all time. Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite against UConn and could lead another betting frenzy.
“The betting handle just follows wherever [Clark] goes,” Tucker says. “As far as the game goes, it really is the perfect matchup.”
“I think that game has the possibility to even beat the record handle we had the last game,” says Avello.
Either way, the sportsbooks will likely be rooting for UConn on both the men’s and women’s sides: Iowa presents immense liability in the women’s future book and while the men’s UConn futures are characterized anywhere from “ok” to a “small winner” for the books, it’s certainly better than the apocalypse scenario that is NC State taking it all.
“UConn is a juggernaut and NC State is on a Cinderella run. Both teams have received strong support from bettors,” says BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee. “The sportsbook will be cheering for Purdue and Alabama in the Final Four.”
The other contenders
There are three teams we haven’t addressed here yet and none of them are friends of the general betting public.
Let’s start with Alabama, which, like NC State, isn’t being given much of a chance by the sportsbooks; the Crimson Tide enter the Final Four with 17-1 odds to win it all.
When also considering the Wolfpack’s 15-1 odds, this marks the first occasion since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that two teams enter the national semifinals with 10-1 odds or longer to win it all. Alabama and NC State trail only 2021’s UCLA (25-1) as the teams with the longest odds to win it all at this point in the tournament.
The other team causing these gigantic odds chasms is Purdue, which holds +210 odds to win the championship and is giving 9.5 points to NC State for Saturday’s contest. That line moved up from the opener of -8.5, meaning that this represents the first time in the last 60 seasons that the spread in both Final Four games is larger than nine; the combined spread of -21 is the highest since 1972 (-24).
And, oh yeah, on the women’s side, there’s a little team called South Carolina that has not lost a single game this season.
The Gamecocks began the campaign in the low plus-money to win the championship, entered March Madness as minus-money favorites and have only improved their position from there, beginning the Final Four at -200 to win it all. Because of the short odds, South Carolina is actually not a liability for the books despite heavy action on them (33.7% of tickets, 31.1% of handle at BetMGM).
“When a team is even money or somewhere in that vicinity, even a small plus to win it all, that’s not an interesting bet for the bettors,” Avello says. “And they’ve been that way all year long.”
Quick notes on Most Outstanding Player
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Mirroring South Carolina’s dominance, center Kamilla Cardoso is the women’s favorite to take home Most Outstanding Player (+120) — but due to heavy public support, Clark is closing the gap on her, showing +150 odds after opening at +200.
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On the men’s side, Donovan Clingan is the favorite at +160 to win MOP, with Purdue’s Zach Edey next at +210, though Clingan’s odds may have been even better if not for the amazing team around him: His UConn teammates Tristen Newton (+300), Cam Spencer (+900) and Stephon Castle (20-1) are the next closest in odds to winning the honor.
