Mortgage rates continue to move lower this week even as higher borrowing costs have kept activity subdued across many areas of the housing market.
According to data at HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, the average rate for 30-year conforming loans was at 7.01% on Tuesday, down 5 basis points from one week ago and 10 basis points lower than two weeks ago. The rate for 15-year conforming loans averaged 6.66% on Tuesday, compared to 6.79% a week ago.
HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami recently wrote that higher mortgage rates “have increased recession risk by targeting the one sector that always falls before every recession: residential construction workers. And higher rates are also impacting the future supply of homes, as housing permits have been in a downtrend for a while.“
Data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) showed that housing starts shrank 4.4% year over year in June. But this pullback was led by the multifamily sector, where starts dropped 23.4% compared to June 2023. Single-family starts rose 4.4% during the year. Permits fell by 3.1% year over year, including a 1.3% decrease in single-family permits.
Housing completions also grew by 15.5% during the year, although the bulk of this was tied to multifamily (40.2% growth). There were a record number of apartments delivered in many markets last year, but builders appear to be pulling back to avoid a glut of supply.
Lower mortgage rates are having a positive impact on application levels, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting last week that applications were up 3.9% on a yearly basis during the week of July 12. Most of this growth was tied to refinance applications, which were up 37% year over year.
Fannie Mae economists project two rate cuts by the end of 2024. In a report released Tuesday, the government-sponsored enterprise anticipated the Federal Reserve would cut benchmark rates in September and December, resulting in the average 30-year rate declining to 6.8% in 2024 and to 6.4% in 2025.
Fannie also upwardly revised its forecast for purchase mortgage origination volume to $1.22 trillion due to home price appreciation that is expected to finish 2024 higher than previously anticipated. Fannie reduced its forecast for refinance originations to $346 billion this year but expects $563 billion in refis next year. In total, Fannie is forecasting $2.11 trillion in origination volume in 2025, up from a projected $1.70 trillion this year.
Survey data released Tuesday by Bright MLS concluded that “affordability is increasingly becoming more of a challenge for potential homebuyers.“ The survey of 1,180 real estate agents across six Mid-Atlantic states and the District of Columbia found that 14% of sellers in June saw a contract fall through due to a buyer’s inability to secure financing, which was up from 11% in May.
The surveyed agents also noted that affordability was the No. 1 reason for a buyer pausing their home search efforts over the past six months, while high mortgage rates were the No. 2 reason. Each of these factors were cited by nearly 60% of respondents.
“With mortgage rates hovering around 7% and home prices continuing to rise, financing is a growing challenge for buyers, and this is beginning to impact a buyer’s ability to make it across the finish line,” Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement.
Good news, however, came in the form of less competition. In June, 38% of buyers successfully completed a purchase through Bright MLS while submitting only a single offer. That was up from 31.2% one year ago.
