After five weeks of chaos, Week 6 was the least destructive week in Eliminator Challenge. Only 5.5% of the remaining entrants were eliminated, with favorites going 12-2 outright. All 10 favorites of at least three points won their games.
Week 7 features several strong options on paper, with three favorites of at least a touchdown. Several of the NFL’s worst teams at the moment are on the road, including the Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins, Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans.
The Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills are the two biggest favorites this week at ESPN BET and are both shaping up as popular picks. However, if you want to avoid the chalk, ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay’s model both recommend the Indianapolis Colts as an undervalued contrarian play.
Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
1. Washington Commanders vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers continue to be the best fade in Eliminator Challenge, going 3-20 since the start of last season. Carolina is the first team to be outscored by 100 points in its first six games since the 2020 Jets.
The Commanders are laying more than a touchdown for just the second time in the past seven seasons, but this is a different team with Jayden Daniels. Both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics models rate the Commanders as the biggest favorites this week. Both models project this to be Washington’s biggest favorite role this season, so it checks every box for a great Eliminator pick.
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ESPN BET odds: Commanders -7.5 (-360 money line)
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ESPN Analytics: 73% chance to win
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Mike Clay: 89% chance to win
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Eliminator Challenge: 7% selected
2. Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
The Colts are a strong contrarian pick this week. Despite only being 3.5-point favorites, they are much bigger favorites in Mike Clay’s and ESPN Analytics’ models. ESPN Analytics currently rates the Dolphins as the worst team in the NFL as long as Tua Tagovailoa is out.
Perhaps the bye week will have helped some of Miami’s issues, but the team currently ranks last in the NFL in EPA per play. The Colts also have limited future value, as ESPN Analytics has them as 60% favorites in only one more game this season.
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ESPN BET odds: Colts -3.5 (-170 money line)
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ESPN Analytics: 72% chance to win
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Mike Clay: 72% chance to win
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Eliminator Challenge: 0.3% selected
0:33
Where Tyler Fulghum leans in the Broncos-Saints game
Tyler Fulghum explains why he’s taking the Broncos with the points against the Saints.
3. Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans
The Bills are the biggest betting favorites this week, and they’re the third-biggest favorites according to both Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. It’s a tricky schedule spot for Buffalo, which is coming off three straight road games against AFC playoff contenders. Now the Bills come home on a short week to host the 1-4 Titans.
However, it’s still likely their biggest favorite role until December, when they face the Patriots in two of their final three games. It’s hard to find a bigger quarterback mismatch this season, with Josh Allen leading the NFL in QBR while Will Levis is 30th out of 31 qualified players.
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ESPN BET odds: Bills -9 (-450 money line)
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ESPN Analytics: 71% chance to win
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Mike Clay: 77% chance to win
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Eliminator Challenge: 15% selected
Other Teams to Consider:
4. Los Angeles Rams (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New England Patriots)
6. Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland Browns)
