Can Bitcoin hit a new ATH before 2024 ends? There’s a 25% chance

  • Bitcoin is predicted to rebound above $50k by October, with a 60% likelihood.
  • Peterson also sees a 25% chance of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high within the same period.

Bitcoin [BTC] was trading back above $57,000 at press time, marking a significant recovery from last week’s sharp decline that brought it down to $53,000—a price point last observed in February.

This resurgence is particularly noteworthy, given the early signs today of a continuing downtrend, with Bitcoin hitting a 24-hour low of $54,320.

In light of recent fluctuations, Timothy Peterson, a respected Bitcoin analyst and economist, has provided an optimistic forecast for the cryptocurrency’s trajectory heading into the fourth quarter of 2024.

Peterson suggested a robust return of bullish sentiment for Bitcoin, particularly noting the importance of its performance in the upcoming months.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s potential surge

Peterson’s analysis presented a promising outlook for Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors.

He argued that if Bitcoin can close July above the $50,000 threshold, there’s a substantial likelihood of the cryptocurrency maintaining or exceeding this level well into October. 

According to his statistical model, following a 25% drawdown from its all-time high (ATH), there’s a 60% chance that Bitcoin’s price will climb higher within the next three months.

Source: Timothy Peterson

Source: Timothy Peterson

Peterson posited that there was a 25% probability that Bitcoin could set a new ATH within this timeframe.

The potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000, while less likely, still stands at a notable 10% chance, adding excitement to the mix of forecasts and speculations swirling around the asset’s future.

Is BTC ready for the potential surge?

Beyond predictions, Bitcoin’s fundamentals provided insights into its capacity to achieve these optimistic targets.

Data from market intelligence platform Santiment showed that wallets holding over 10,000 BTC have significantly benefited from the recent market volatility.

Over the past six weeks, these large-scale holders have increased their holdings by 12,450 BTC. 

Source: SantimentSource: Santiment

Source: Santiment

This accumulation, representing a 1.05% increase in the total Bitcoin supply held, indicated strong confidence among major investors and could be a bullish signal for the market.

Such movements often suggest that large holders, potentially including exchange liquidity providers, anticipated higher prices or more significant market shifts.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which was 36.1 at press time, provided further clues about the cryptocurrency’s valuation.

The NVT ratio, by comparing market cap to the volume of transactions on the blockchain, helps assess whether the coin is overvalued or undervalued. 

Bitcoin NVT RatioBitcoin NVT Ratio

Source: CryptoQuant

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25

A lower NVT ratio typically indicates that the network is healthy and transactions are high relative to the market cap, suggesting the asset is undervalued and potentially poised for a price increase.

As for the short-term forecast, AMBCrypto has reported that Bitcoin does not have enough demand in the short term to sustain a rally beyond $60k.

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