- Bitcoin short-term holders realized losses, reflecting market uncertainty and potential turning points.
- A drop in Bitcoin’s STH SOPR suggested either the risk of deeper corrections or long-term opportunities.
Bitcoin [BTC] short-term holders are now selling their holdings at a loss, with the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) multiple turning negative.
This metric, which compares the 30-day STH SOPR to its 365-day average, highlights a shift in STH profitability trends.
Historically, such moments have coincided with significant market turning points, signaling either attractive long-term entry opportunities or heightened short-term risks.
What the STH SOPR reveals about BTC
The STH SOPR measures whether Bitcoin short-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss. By comparing the 30-day STH SOPR to its 365-day average, this metric provides a clear trend of STH profitability.
Recent data has revealed that the STH SOPR multiple has entered negative territory, indicating that STHs are selling at a loss.
Historically, such dips often reflect growing market stress but can also present accumulation opportunities for long-term investors.
Source: Cryptoquant
The chart highlighted this shift, with the recent drop below 1.0 signaling waning confidence among STHs.
As this trend unfolds, it raises questions about whether STHs will continue to sell, deepening market corrections, or hold firm, creating a potential price floor.
Potential market outcomes amid STH losses
As Bitcoin short-term holders begin realizing losses, two possible scenarios could shape the market trajectory.
In the first scenario, STHs may opt to hold rather than sell at a loss, allowing their realized price to act as a strong support level. Such behavior could stabilize Bitcoin’s price and provide a foundation for recovery.
Conversely, a wave of capitulation may occur if STHs continue to offload their holdings. This could amplify selling pressure and trigger a deeper market correction.
Historically, such capitulation events often coincide with heightened volatility, but they may also signal attractive entry points for long-term investors.
The unfolding trend will depend on broader market sentiment and the behavior of other market participants.
Historical context and long-term outlook
Historically, negative STH SOPR multiples have coincided with critical turning points in Bitcoin’s market.
For instance, during the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash, the STH SOPR fell into negative territory, signaling short-term holders capitulating at a loss.
This period later proved to be one of the most lucrative entry points, as Bitcoin surged from $4,000 to over $60,000 within the following year.
Similarly, in mid-2018, as Bitcoin retraced from its $20,000 peak, the STH SOPR showed sustained negative readings.
Although it indicated capitulation at the time, it marked the accumulation phase before Bitcoin’s rally to new all-time highs in 2020.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2025–2026
For long-term investors, these negative SOPR phases have often preceded significant recoveries, as selling pressure subsides and accumulation begins.
While the current trend reflects short-term uncertainty, historical patterns suggest potential for bullish outcomes over an extended horizon.
